UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida Preview

"Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida for the Light Heavyweight Championship. A rematch between Frank Mir and Minotauro Nogueira. As well as Tito Ortiz taking on Lil' Nog."

Saturday, December 10th, the UFC heads back to Toronto for UFC 140 and features a Light Heavyweight Championship bout between division champ Jon “Bones” Jones (14-1) and former champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (17-2), as well as a Heavyweight rematch between Frank Mir (15-5) and Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (33-6-1-(1-)).

Jones is fresh off of a dominating performance against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson this past September, when he became the first person to stop Jackson in the UFC with a third round rear naked choke submission. The victory was Jones’ first title defense since dethroning former champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in March.

Machida is the former champion and earned his title shot after retiring Randy Couture with a Karate Kid inspired jumping front crane kick in April. Before that fight however, Machida lost a very VERY controversial decision to “Rampage” Jackson (a fight I think he CLEARLY won) and was knocked out by “Shogun” to lose his title.

I heard rumblings that Machida has not done enough to warrant himself a title fight, but with Rashad Evans unable to take the fight due to a thumb injury, I believe this was the best bout the UFC could make.

Stylistically, Machida does not matchup with anyone competing in all of MMA, so to see him compete is always a treat. Jones on the other hand is arguably the most creative fighter to ever step foot inside the octagon, so to watch this chess game unravel is going to be a real treat for hardcore MMA fans who know what they are watching.

Machida is as elusive as a ghost and rarely ever gets hit. His footwork is special to behold, as he uses a traditional karate style to avoid taking punishment. His striking is difficult to time, as he is extremely patient and waits for the optimal opening to attack with a barrage of combinations.

On the other hand, Jones is unstoppable inside the Octagon. Undefeated (technically he has one loss, but he thoroughly dominated Matt Hamill and if it wasn’t for Steve Mazzagatti’s incompetence as a referee, he would have a spotless record) Jones has an incomparable 84.5 inch reach (the tallest fighter in the UFC 6’11 Heavyweight Stefan Struve only has an 84 inch reach.) This reach, the longest in UFC history, gives Jones an advantage in every fight, since he is able to keep his opponents at bay and punish them at the same time. All of Jones’ previous opponents had to suffer a massive amount of damage, just to get close enough to hit him and most fail, since the kid is so good.

There are so many X-factors coming into this fight, choosing one to breakdown is practically impossible. While Machida may be elusive, we have seen that an aggressive Muay Thai based attack could solve his puzzle. Strong leg kicks, take away Machida’s movement, which make him vulnerable and much easier to hit. “Shogun” used this strategy to perfection in their two fights and if Jones wants to defend his title, he needs to hit Machida’s legs early and often.

Machida’s plan will most likely stay the same, which is to wait for an opening and then attack. Machida is a lifelong martial artist, whose whole life has been dedicated to the craft, while Jones has only been studying and practicing MMA since 2008. The experience factor could play dividends, but Machida will need to be on top of his game and in great form, if he wants to take the belt away from Jones.

Ultimately, I’m expecting Jones to retain because he has too many tools to win and is showing rapid improvement in every fight. Machida will undoubtedly be his most difficult challenge to date, but the mystique around Machida has faded in recent times, and the formula to beat him has been revealed.

My prediction is a third round TKO, as I’m confident Jones is going to take away Machida’s legs from the start in order to slow him down and pick him apart until he is able to finish him. If Machida does win, he’s going to need to find a way to frustrate Jones and get inside his reach to test his chin in the early rounds, or just do enough and try and pull out a decision victory.

In the Heavyweight division, Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira will fight for the second time.

The first time these two fought, Frank Mir defeated Nogueira via TKO and became the first person to ever finish him. Nogueria claims it was health issues which prevented him from fighting in top form and has been eager to rematch Mir for three years.

This matchup is still as intriguing as it was before, since both are masters of BJJ. The last time, the fight unfortunately never hit the mat and was a standup battle, where Mir outclassed Nogueria. However, since that time Nogueria has vastly improved his striking as shown in his last fight, where he knocked out the up and coming prospect Brandon Schaub in the first round.

As much as I want to see these two compete on the mat and put on a grappling clinic, I see this fight ending similar to the first contest. Mir’s striking has quickly become one of the best in the division and while I don’t think Mir will finish Nogueria this time around, I see him doing enough to earn a decisive unanimous decision.

The other co-featured fight is Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria’s twin brother Antonio ROGERIO Nogueria (Lil’ Nog) (19-5) taking on the former “Huntington Beach Bad Boy” now “People’s Champ” Tito Ortiz (19-6-1).

Lil’ Nog is fighting back from two straight unanimous decision losses to Ryan Bader and Phil Davis respectively and needs a win in order to get back into the upper echelon of the Light Heavyweight division.

Ortiz is facing somewhat of a career resurgence after his first round submission victory over Ryan Bader in July. The win was dynamic, and I never heard a louder crowd cheering in excitement as Ortiz was doing his trademark grave digging celebration (coolest post-win dance EVER!).

Immediately after, Ortiz had a quick turn around and saved the UFC 133 card after Phil Davis pulled out with an injury. His opponent was Rashad Evans in a rematch of their 2007 fight and Evans walked away with a second round TKO victory, but Ortiz did enough to earn Fight of the Night honors and remain in good graces with the UFC.

Although Ortiz is 1-5-1 since 2006, he has only fought top level competition such as Rashad Evans (twice), Chuck Liddell in his prime, Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin and Matt Hamill, and only the Liddell fight and the last fight against Evans was he ever stopped.

I doubt either will be cut with a loss, but both are in desperate need of a win. Neither are going to be fighting for the title anytime in the near future, but they are still entertaining fighters who have left their mark in the sports history.

My prediction is a unanimous decision victory for Lil’ Nog as his boxing is great and if Ortiz drags him to the mat, his BJJ is crafty and devastating. Plus the Nogueria brothers are notorious for being able to take massive amounts of punishment and always find ways to win.

UFC 140 is an entertaining card for hardcore MMA fans as it features well rounded fighters with compelling skill sets. Each of the featured bouts can go either way, making for a good night of chess games.

Also the “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung is fighting on the card! Yippee!!! 




Predictions:
Jon Jones defeats Lyoto Machida via 3rd Round TKO to retain the Light Heavyweight Championship
Frank Mir defeats Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria via Unanimous Decision
Antonio Rogerio Nogueria defeats Tito Ortiz via Unanimous Decision
Brian Ebersole defeats Claude Patrick via 1st Round Submission
Mark Hominick defeats Chan Sung Jung via 2nd Round TKO
Krzysztof Soszynski defeats Igor Pokrajac via 1st Round Submission