"The UFC begins its relationship with FOX as Lightweights Melvin Guillard and Jim Miller fight, as well as an explosive Welterweight battle between Duane "Bang" Ludwig and Josh Neer"
UFC begins its relationship with FOX TV tonight, as lightweights Melvin Guillard (29-9-2-(1)) and Jim Miller (20-3) battle each other at UFC on FX1.
This event, the new type of Fight Night, features two highly regarded and respected lightweights, who are both coming off of losses. Guillard, a devastating .47 second loss at UFC 136 to Joe Lauzon , which snapped a 5 fight winning streak and Miller who lost a three round unanimous decision to Benson Henderson in a number one contender’s bout in August, which snapped his 7 fight win streak.
In my opinion, both Guillard and Miller are top 10 lightweight fighters in the world, however each fighter employ's a vastly different fighting style.
Guillard is as talented and athletically gifted as they come in MMA, with blitzing hand speed and huge power in both hands. Miller, on the other hand is just as talented but is a blue collar fighter, who wares down his opponent with excellent wrestling and BJJ.
While Guillard may seem to be the favorite coming into this contest in a lot of people’s minds, mainly because he is the more attractive choice, due to his monstrous highlight reel of knockout finishes in the UFC, I like Miller to walk away victorious at the end of the night, for a number of reasons.
First and foremost, Guillard could be the most dominant champion in the UFC right now. He possesses all the physical attributes for success, but he is his own worst enemy. Guillard does not have the mental fortitude, and at times appears to be arrogant, which hurts him.
Guillard should not have had trouble defeating Joe Lauzon, but came out swinging recklessly with his hands down, and chin straight up not respecting the skill of Lauzon. Thus, Guillard essentially knocked himself out as he walked straight into a JAB from Lauzon which knocked him down, allowing Lauzon to take his back and choke him out.
I would love to sit here and say, ‘oh, it was just a foolish mistake’, but it’s not. Guillard has fought 41 times, he has a lot of experience, he should know better than to disrespect an opponent, especially someone as crafty as Lauzon, who is one of the most dangerous opening round fighters in the sport.
The second reason why I won’t pick Guillard, is because of his decision to leave Greg Jackson’s camp in favor of the Blackzilians.
Guillard went on the greatest run of his UFC career as soon as he joined Jackson’s MMA. Greg Jackson who is the best trainer in the sport, taught Guillard patience and substantially improved his submission defense, thus Guillard went on a five fight winning streak.
Now, after one minor setback, Guillard left the camp which dramatically improved his shortcomings to join Rashad Evans and the Blackzilians. A fresh, up and coming team, the Blackzilians as a team have not shown a lot of success in the Octagon, and I personally, think was a horrible move and shows just how Guillard is his own worst enemy.
The third reason is Guillard’s opponent, Jim Miller. Miller is as good as they come in the UFC lightweight division and I absolutely love his fighting style.
A tough as nails, hard worker, with never ending cardio, Miller’s three losess have come to the best of the best, UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar, former contender Grey Maynard and current number one contender Ben Henderson. Knowing what type of fighter Miller is, and how he continuously gets better after every fight, I fully expect Miller to have worked harder than ever before in training camp to get back to his winning ways, especially coming off of a loss.
As long as Miller, is able to avoid the first couple of minutes with a fresh and aggressive Guillard and avoid Guillard’s power, I expect Miller to outwork and find a way to take Guillard down to the mat and put him into uncomfortable territory, eventually submitting him.
That’s not to say, Guillard does not have a chance, as one strike from him could put Miller to sleep, but I believe Miller is too smart of a fighter and will have a proper strategy, to make Guillard look like a rookie and push him further back down the line of Lightweight contenders.
I predict a late first or second round submission for Jim Miller, Friday night.
Also on the card, an explosive hard hitting Welterweight battle between Duane “Bang” Ludwig, the record holder for fastest UFC knockout (21-11) and Josh Neer (32-10-1) as well as Heavyweight Pat Barry (6-4) returning to action.
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